Fire!

Should I stay or should I go now?

I’m writing these linked pieces as much to organise my own thinking and preparation for fire as for anything so I welcome feedback. I've mentioned before that I'm indebted to two books in particular as excellent sources for considering how to face fire, the works of David Holmgren and Joan Webster¹.

We live in a relatively isolated property with our nearest neighbour about half a mile away. Our house is roughly centred on a seven acre (2.2 hectare) patch of fields and woodland, in turn surrounded by several thousand acres of exotic conifer plantation, called Coed Y Brenin. There are a few score other properties scattered throughout the forest and more on its peripheries.

The plantation is in a condition of almost complete neglect and has been for nearly half a century, exacerbated by a “Do Nothing” approach introduced in the mid 1990s. Self seeded conifers, notably Western Hemlock, have sprung up throughout, particularly at our southern end on Mynydd Penrhos, both in previously planted areas and on regeneration sites, leading to heavily overcrowded stands of trees that now carry a very high fuel burden².

Rainfall patterns have changed and are continuing to change with less precipitation occurring during the spring and early summer and more in the autumn and winter, as predicted by climate scientists as a result of global warming and confirmed here by my own rainfall records over the past few decades. So while annual totals are still staying roughly the same, we are seeing rainfall coming in both concentrated and sustained episodes during autumn and winter with drastic falls in humidity and consequent increasing aridity of the surface litter and dead timber, in spring and early summer, all of which combine towards a high fire risk.

(Its worth mentioning that the so-called Celtic Rainforest depends not just on high rainfall but on the maintenance of high humidity which supports the mosses, ferns, liverworts and lichens that help to make it such a unique ecosystem.)

In the event of a serious forest fire, which, given global warming, seems inevitable at some point, it is unlikely that the emergency services, run down by the UK Government over the last fourteen years, will be able to cope with the threat to more than just a handful of properties at once. This means we will probably have to do more protect ourselves.

The work of David Holmgren, co-originator of permaculture design, is especially useful as his designing for fire is embedded in the concept of permaculture design itself. Permaculture design is a strategy, rather than just a plan³; that is, a permaculture design is flexible and capable of adjusting to changing circumstances. So with regard to fire any design will provide different options, each captured as a plan, depending upon the severity and behaviour of the fire. It is then vital that everyone on the property is familiar with the design, which plan is currently being followed and knows what their role is in it.

Should I stay of should I go now?

This is the first question to ask- should I stay and protect my property or should I take flight and wait somewhere safe till its all over? Its a big question but there are also other options available which I'll mention briefly below. Ultimately, leaving or staying has to be a personal decision. It will depend on your heath, fitness, knowledge and preparation of both your self, your landscape, your property and the people who share it with you. Depending upon their construction and immediate surroundings, properties are more or less fire prone and some will be easier to protect than others.

Considerable thought must be given to children and animals. Whereas young adults may wish to be fully involved in defending against fire, younger children and pets may be best evacuated to a safe house early and for the duration. If you have livestock then they require careful thought and are probably best left in your largest field, although the concept of “safe fencing” disappears when animals are terrified. Like the fire, they will be unpredictable.

Flight.

We should probably all be prepared for flight anyway, even if we see it as a last resort- the minimum for this is to have a flight bag ready for all essential documents and the like. This presupposes that you have thought about what you really need to save and know where it all is.

Knowing when to leave is pretty critical. Too soon and the fire might change direction and miss your house completely but it still gets burned down by a blown ember you could have put out quite easily if you'd been there. Both Webster and Holmgren are clear that a high proportion (up to 80%) of properties in Australian fires that burn down could have been saved relatively easily if someone had been there to put out blown embers and small spot fires⁴.

However, in a very serious fire, leave it too late and you may find your escape route engulfed in flames. Hence the need to plan a number of escape routes and practice them, noting the time it takes and taking into account the possibility of having to leave in the dark or through dense smoke.

above: peat fire, still smouldering 6 weeks after it began. Alberta, Canada, has seen a rise in so-called Zombie Fires, where the peat continues to burn all winter, under snow and ice, waiting to break out again after the thaw.

If you decide in advance that you are going to evacuate, its still possible to prepare your property as best you can to look after itself while you are away. This is largely the same as taking basic precautions to reduce fire risk to a house anyway and as such can be seen as a good thing to do whatever. I will concentrate on preparing your house in the next piece as it deserves some space.

Refuges

There are alternatives to flight. You may choose to connect with a neighbour whose property may be more easily defended and take refuge with them. However, in a suburban environment, David Holmgren is very clear that neighbouring properties of folk who evacuate that catch fire because no one stays to put out a spot fire becomes the most serious threat to your own house⁵.

Another alternative treated in detail by Webster is a safe refuge on your property or connected to your house where you can retreat in the event of a truly catastrophic fire and sit it out. This is beyond the scope of this article and my knowledge and experience but it is worth considering in some situations. You'll have to check out the literature for details on the construction of fire safe refuges. Joan Webster's work provides much more detail. Cellars should be avoided as the house can burn down and fall in on top of you. Ideas like sheltering in a pond with a breathing pipe are fantasy; my brother, an ex-fireman, put me straight on this, pointing out that in an intense fire the air temperature can become too hot to breathe.

Not really related to forest fires but fire can spring up in the most unexpected places and situations. Here my trusty Reliant Robin three-wheeler randomly self-combusts and finally dies, despite the valiant efforts of the local fire brigade to save it. Unfortunately, given 14 years of cuts to our emergency services here in the UK, and the possibility of major wildfires breaking out more or less simultaneously across the country, it is unlikely that these courageous professionals will be able to help all who find themselves in need. Best get ourselves ready.

Thanks for reading. Next time on fire I’ll look at what we can do to protect our own homes and ourselves from the effects of fire. Till then, take care. Hwyl! Chris

1. David Holmgren Retrosuburbia. The Downshifter's guide to a resilient future. Available from online.retrosuburbia.com

I consider this to be one of the essential books for any permaculture designer's, low impactor's or survivor’s bookshelf. In his usual clear, thoughtful way, David takes us through a whole range of techniques available to survive an ever changing future, all contained within that permaculture design strategy. Excellent reading. Chapters 11 Retrofitting for bushfire defence and 34 Household disaster planning in particular are very relevant for designing for fire.

Joan Webster: The Complete Bushfire Safety Book. Penguin 2000 and the more accessible Essential Bushfire Safety Tips. 3^rd edition CSIRO Publishing, 2021 are packed with information based on decades of observation and experience.

Try getting your library to order them if you can't afford to buy them yourself.

2. These are the links to my previous pieces relating to fire;

The current state of Coed Y Brenin, probably replicated in many other forests.

The relation of the current state of Coed Y Brenin to the greatly increased fire risk.

The new face of fire given increasing temperatures and aridity pretty much world wide due to global warming.

Beginning to think about and design for fire in the UK

3. We could say here in this instance that a plan is a list of numbered steps or instructions that are carried out in sequence. Each one is clear and simple and easy to follow. A strategy contains a number of plans which may be allocated to different individuals or groups or may be chosen or discarded depending upon changing circumstances. A fire can be very unpredictable so flexibility and the ability to change your plans rapidly is essential.

4. Spot fires are small fires started by embers or burning material blown in on the wind in advance of the fire front. Having someone vigilant with something as simple as a watering can or bucket plus easy access to water means that spot fires can be extinguished quickly before they grow any larger. Its the uncontrolled spot fires that can spread wildfire rapidly, jump firebreaks and spring up unexpectedly behind you and burn your house down while your dealing with an approaching fire front.

5. A modern house filled with petroleum based products is a fire bomb waiting to go off. Radiant heat from an approaching fire causes the materials inside the house to give off highly flammable gases. An ember blowing in through a poorly fitted door or window can cause these to ignite. As permaculture designers we will probably have avoided synthetic materials where possible but we may have furniture or furnishings, cushions and curtains and the like accumulated through need rather than choice that may contain or be made from petroleum based products. Its a good idea to replace this sort of stuff anyway as in the case of a house fire, a smouldering petroleum product can produce poisonous gases that can kill you while you sleep.